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My response to the notorious Kill Hollywood post by Y Combinator: Kill Y Combinator. The entire year 2011 went by and I never watched a single TV show. We had DirecTV with HD and when we moved we decided not to move the service. Oh, DirecTV tried to talk us into keeping it but they were not persuasive. Far more persuasive was the idea of no television at all, being free of all the noise, the ads, the endless flipping of channels. A year has passed and I don't miss TV at all. I never think about it. I think about the book I am reading. I think about the book I just read. I think about the book I'm looking forward to reading next. If you've contemplated cutting the cable, I encourage you to do it. You will not regret it. Posted a long rambling article over at the MovieGoer blog entitled Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, or, Why I Sit In the Front Row at the Movies. Jack Goldman, 90, former Chief Scientist of Xerox and creator of what became Xerox PARC, died this week. John Markoff wrote the obit in the NY Times and there's a WIRED obit as well. I had the pleasure of interviewing Jack on July 30, 2003, over the phone, as part of my research for my book on the history of the PLATO system. I uncovered a story Jack had intended to keep secret, that George Pake was not the actual first choice to be director of Xerox PARC, but rather, it was someone else. I have a chapter on PARC in my upcoming book, in which the decades-old secret will be revealed. During the interview, I casually asked Goldman, who, remember, created Xerox PARC which would inspire Steve Jobs to pursue the GUI interface for Macintosh, what he used personally: PC, or Macintosh. Here was his reply, in 2003:
I use only Macintosh. If you came into my home, I have -- I still have, I never throw them out, I have a Macintosh, a Macintosh 500, a Macintosh Plus, a Power Macintosh, a PowerBook, and now I just got a new iMac, because I wanted a 17 inch screen, and the easiest way to get one was to get an iMac.And there you have it. The creator of Xerox PARC, a Mac fanatic. I think Steve Jobs would get a chuckle out of that.
Take a moment, turn up the volume, and enjoy.
Finally got around to watching the Oct 4th Apple iPhone 4S presentation. The main thing that struck me from this demo is Siri. Everything else is the usual great step forward, but Siri is another matter altogether. Siri represents a compelling case for a front-end natural language interface to vast amounts of data. Put simply, you ask it questions and it gives you answers. In time, you will be able to ask it more complex questions and it will be able to provide more complex answers.
What follows is a possible scenario, a possible way things might go, should Siri take off the way I think it might. 1. Siri Changes the User Experience Siri changes the way you interact with your phone. You currently interact with your phone through applications that generally require interaction via the touch screen. If Siri takes off, you will touch the screen less. A lot less. When driving, in all sorts of situations. You'll talk to your device instead.
2. Are you talking to Apple's app or talking to a third party app? If you're not interacting with your phone by touch, but rather talking to it, you are probably going through Apple's own natural language funnel, meaning, Siri. Question is, will Apple extend Siri's functionality to other apps, third party apps? Or will it keep it for its own?
One possible scenario: development of standalone apps declines. What rises instead is data. Tons of data. Logic. Logic and data mixed. Basically, domain knowledge. Expertise. Facts. The Yelp portion of the Siri demo in the video is what did it for me. That makes me think the future of the iPhone is kind of like HAL in the movie 2001. All those modules that make up Hal's knowledge and expert system. The more modules, or plugins, you pay for, the more your Siri knows about the world. Third parties become knowledge plugin developers. Apple opens the "Know Store". "Knows" like Yellow Pages, TV listings, sports info, stocks, medical knowledge, car info, travel info, tourist info, all sorts of things. All the things that Apple doesn't have the time or resources to build: let the third parties reign. 3. It's Not Just What You Know, but Who But would these third parties be developing "apps"? I don't think so. I think they'd be developing server APIs. APIs that the iPhone can plug right into. (And heck, when Android has its Siri clone, that Android can plug into as well.) So there might not be as much need of a front-end UI designer, graphics design, etc, but rather it's all about information design, query design, knowledge design, knowledge rules, knowledge sets. And that's what the value-add would shift to. Eventually a Yelp app would not need to have much of a UI if any. It'd be handled by Siri and a Yelp Know plugin. Siri would come pre-bundled with lots of Knows, but you could add more. Companies could compete to build the best Knows, and that becomes the next vibrant marketplace. Companies with social networks, social graphs, and such, would theoretically be at an advantage in such a world, because they could enable Siri to ask more complex questions like "What are my friends doing tonight?" and "What shouldn't I get for Sally's birthday?" I could envision walking into a hotel, and the hotel's wifi offering a free Know plugin that your phone can immediately use. So you could ask questions like, "What's on the room service menu" and "Have my friends checked in yet" and "Where is the conference registration desk in this hotel" and "What time does the pool open in the morning". Or walk into a grocery store and be able to slurp up the local Know for that store. There will be all kinds of such opportunities for startups in the future. Which begins right now.
In Werner Herzog's latest documentary there's a line that struck me: live your dash. "Dash" meaning the hyphen on a tombstone between the two years. Steve Jobs lived his dash well. I met Steve twice, years ago. First time was in 1991, at NeXT's gleaming white offices in Redwood Shores, while I attended NeXT Developer Camp. The tradition at DevCamp was that Steve would join the developers for a dinner one evening, but his schedule didn't permit it so we were all invited into one of NeXT's conference rooms near the famous supportless concrete stairway that was the architectural centerpiece of the company's office building (though, I was equally impressed with floor-to-ceiling whiteboard wall surfaces, which I'd seen at only one other place years earlier: Xerox PARC). Inside, Steve was demoing NeXTStep to Phil White, then CEO of Informix. We all watched as he walked through the NeXTStep OS and series of apps. Then in 1993 my wife and I got to meet Steve as he was walking the Moscone Center exhibition hall before his NeXTWORLD EXPO event opened to the public. Coconut Computing, our company, had a booth at the conference; we were exhibiting the NeXTSTEP version of our COCONET software. Steve was absolutely beaming. He'd just had a baby, NeXTSTEP for Intel processors was being introduced, thousands of attendees showed up for his conference, and things were still looking bright for NeXT , though not for long. I still own two Canon Object.stations and an Intel pizza box running NeXTSTEP (if only the disk drives still worked).Millions of people to this day are unaware how important NeXT was and is to Apple. MacOS X is essentially NeXTSTEP; every Objective C developer is familiar with the NS prefixes to all of Apple's MacOS and iOS software development APIs. Thanks for the inspiration and changing the world, Steve. In response to the Goodbye letter from Borders employee(s)(?) spills secrets of bookselling trade as reported on boingboing.net.
The internet can't help itself. Even a demonstration against Wall Street gets plastered with ads.
(Screen grab from the live video feed at the Wall Street demonstrations going on today) It's amusing to read about folks declaring they're quitting email. One writer shared how he went on a strict Google+ diet: "I even stopped using e-mail." No you didn't. Google+ is email. It is an evolutionary step, not a revolutionary step. I kind of wonder if Google+ is not Gmail with a different UI Let's compare, shall we?
Sure, Google+ has other features like Hangouts and stuff, but the core is the conversation, and the conversation is basically email. Like it always has been. |
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